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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...

I feel a political headache coming on....

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Created by FormulaNova > 9 months ago, 20 Dec 2012
FormulaNova
WA, 15106 posts
20 Dec 2012 7:42PM
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It seems that the treasurer has decided that it is no longer likely that they will run a surplus...

www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/swan-admits-surplus-unlikely-20121220-2boi4.html

Finally some sense!

...and then of course we hear from another politician, "It is a failure of trust. We will pursue this government every single day until the next election on its failure to deliver a surplus.''

Yeah, great. The opposition would prefer the government to spend less money when the economy slows down?



Pugwash
WA, 7733 posts
20 Dec 2012 8:01PM
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That is one interpretation.

Another may be about "responsibility", "accountability" and "credibility".

Carantoc
WA, 7298 posts
20 Dec 2012 8:03PM
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FormulaNova said...

It seems that the treasurer has decided that it is no longer likely that they will run a surplus...

www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/swan-admits-surplus-unlikely-20121220-2boi4.html

Finally some sense!

...



It is not 'finally some sense' - the failure to deliver a surplus isn't going to be due to the Government pumping more money into the economy, it is going to be due only to lower revenue.

The surplus loss isn't because the Government is going to suddenly spend more on new projects to stimulate the economy. They just over-forecast their revenue for current spend and have acted poorly in controlling the Aus dollar.

If they said 'a suplus will be delivered but we now chose to spend that surplus on a economic stimulus package of XYZ', then they could perhaps claim some credit for both delivering a surplus, but also for reacting in the correct way to global events outside of their control by spending the surplus wisely to create more revenue next year.

But no, it is just bad book keeping, not nation building.

kiteboy dave
QLD, 6525 posts
20 Dec 2012 10:32PM
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The bigger question is why most of the mainstream media has been avoiding ashbygate like the plague when it's actually a massive story and all sorts of other media has been going nuts about it for a week now. The answer is of course that news limited journos are involved as well, and Rupert's firmly barracking for the libs.

Abbott's up to his eyeballs in it. He was Slippers close mate, his best man FFS, made his wife cry by turning up late to their wedding. He absolutely set the dogs on him for his defection, and now those dogs have turned back on him.

He's made himself look like a complete goose, again, by claiming Brough's his best mate and of course Brough's done no wrong, but then he claims he hasn't even read the judge's findings or been briefed about it. Because he was too busy doing important stuff in London.

Compared to that the backing off a surplus is a nothing, especially considering they've been telegraphing it for 6 months, and the world economy has hugely changed since 2010 when it was first promised. It's just a mark in a book anyway, it's not the same as paying off your mortgage, it's more akin to having a mortgage for your entire life and saying well next month I'm paying my exact payment not slightly less. Some months you pay a bit over, some a bit under, but it doesn't change anything for anyone except a line on a graph.

Abbott is currently the 2nd most unpopular pollie in history (hyperbole there, 2nd most unpopular Aus LOTO actually), and working on taking number one spot. He is actually more unpopular now than his great big scary carbon tax (remember that?) which he will blood oath repeal if he gets in. The only reason the libs haven't rolled him yet is that they still hold a narrow lead in the polls - but a rogue poll yesterday showed them losing. One or two more polls like that and the mad monk will be dumped quicker than a bucket of prawns in the sun, nothing more than a nasty little burp in the history of Australian politics.

FlySurfer
NSW, 4460 posts
20 Dec 2012 11:53PM
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This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.



Wait


Seriously now


One more

adolf
1862 posts
20 Dec 2012 9:46PM
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FlySurfer said...
This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.


Ain't that the truth!

But hey, it's probably a good thing as I made 1K yesterday selling my BHP shares. About time I had a nice win and could go and have lunch in the good place.

tmurray
WA, 485 posts
20 Dec 2012 10:27PM
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Every economist in Australia seems to think that scrapping the surplus is a good thing.

The opposition will focus much more on a 'broken promise' than whether the policy is actually good or not. It might take some of the attention off the James Ashby / Peter Slipper debacle.

tmurray
WA, 485 posts
20 Dec 2012 10:29PM
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kiteboy dave said...


Abbott's up to his eyeballs in it. He was Slippers close mate, his best man FFS, made his wife cry by turning up late to their wedding. He absolutely set the dogs on him for his defection, and now those dogs have turned back on him.







Peter Slipper voted for him when he challenged for leadership of the party. The vote that he won by 1 vote. Ie if it wasn't for Peter Slipper he would not now be the leader of the opposition.

Underoath
QLD, 2434 posts
21 Dec 2012 1:09AM
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It was a budget right?
Labour must have thought it was achievable otherwise Swan wouldn't have said “We will be in surplus by.....2013”.

Ted the Kiwi
NSW, 14256 posts
21 Dec 2012 7:07AM
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Carantoc said...
It is not 'finally some sense' - the failure to deliver a surplus isn't going to be due to the Government pumping more money into the economy, it is going to be due only to lower revenue.


Their spending is up approx. $100 bio a year since they came into power. Yes revenue is down and its looks like we will have a budget deficit in the order of $20b at a minimum....just a few weeks ago they told us we were having a surplus...their finger clearly appears on the pulse. One big issue for me is the mining tax - I agree in principal to a tax on these resources - what i disagree with is the way in which their tax was developed and hence why it now collects so little revenue yet they have spent the money they were hoping to get. Its a shame that the tax could not have been a bit more well thought out and the monnies from the tax put to good use like infrastructure spending or a sovereign wealth fund for future use. The Aust budget is heavily linked to global prices of commodities these days which as we all know are very volatile.

Carantoc said...
The surplus loss isn't because the Government is going to suddenly spend more on new projects to stimulate the economy. They just over-forecast their revenue for current spend and have acted poorly in controlling the Aus dollar.


They do not have control over the $A. Govt policy can contribute to the $A level but they have no way of directly controlling it. Things like inflation can certainly be influenced by Govt choices and certainly go someway to reflecting the real exchange rate, but the terms of trade and perceived risk premium of Australia also play a significant role. Monetary policy is the one clear lever that can be used but this is not controlled by Govt. Its independent.

Carantoc said...
If they said 'a suplus will be delivered but we now chose to spend that surplus on a economic stimulus package of XYZ', then they could perhaps claim some credit for both delivering a surplus, but also for reacting in the correct way to global events outside of their control by spending the surplus wisely to create more revenue next year.

But no, it is just bad book keeping, not nation building.


It was a stupid stupid promise in the first place. They really only have themselves to blame on this one. They tried to bring forward the mid year budget estimate to avoid having to have this discussion. Their best attempts at creative accounting have backfired. Why would you make such a promise in the midst of a massive global downturn and then stick to your guns for all this time knowing you were going to fail? The two at the top will do anything to stay in power....they were scared of the electorate and then the Rudd factions so they continued on with their merry dance about how responsible they were as economic managers. Yes it may be more responsible to run a deficit at the moment BUT they should have alerted to this a lot sooner if they really were as responsible as they claim. Thats where the issue is. They should have been celebrating having brought the budget back so quickly from such a massive deficit to just a small one relatively speaking. Rant over.

FormulaNova
WA, 15106 posts
21 Dec 2012 4:48AM
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Carantoc said...
FormulaNova said...

It seems that the treasurer has decided that it is no longer likely that they will run a surplus...

www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/swan-admits-surplus-unlikely-20121220-2boi4.html

Finally some sense!

...



It is not 'finally some sense' - the failure to deliver a surplus isn't going to be due to the Government pumping more money into the economy, it is going to be due only to lower revenue.


No, I meant, finally some sense, in that in order to run a surplus they would have to stop spending on lots of things, quickly, only to meet some stupid political expectation.

I would hate to see something that damages the economy from happening just because the Libs will pound the Labs in the media over this.



The surplus loss isn't because the Government is going to suddenly spend more on new projects to stimulate the economy. They just over-forecast their revenue for current spend and have acted poorly in controlling the Aus dollar.

If they said 'a suplus will be delivered but we now chose to spend that surplus on a economic stimulus package of XYZ', then they could perhaps claim some credit for both delivering a surplus, but also for reacting in the correct way to global events outside of their control by spending the surplus wisely to create more revenue next year.

But no, it is just bad book keeping, not nation building.


No, its just reality that the economy is slowing a bit and that also affects funding.

FormulaNova
WA, 15106 posts
21 Dec 2012 4:53AM
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FlySurfer said...
This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.

<snip family photo #1>

Wait
<snip family photo #2>

Seriously now
<snip family photo #3>
One more

<Hey I hope you aren't married to that>



You're like that loud obnoxious bloke that walks into a place and it all has to be about ME, ME, ME, aren't you?

Maybe you need to go self medicate on some psychotics psychotropics and weed, but make sure you don't ingest any of that nasty fluoride.

kiteboy dave
QLD, 6525 posts
21 Dec 2012 8:14AM
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FlySurfer said...
This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.

<snip family photo #1>

Wait
<snip family photo #2>

Seriously now
<snip family photo #3>
One more

<Hey I hope you aren't married to that>



I could go into every single poley thread and post that. Every longboard thread. Every fishing thread. Can you see a pattern forming here Fly? Now look up, can you see that thing at the top Fly? It's a title. You read it before you click and you think about whether the thread might interest you. If if doesn't they you stay the f away. simple.

Sailhack
VIC, 5000 posts
21 Dec 2012 9:57AM
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^^^ Although you know that Flysurfer makes a good point - Aus politics (and commentary) is pretty feckin boring...

...but don't let him distract you - please continue.

Underoath
QLD, 2434 posts
21 Dec 2012 9:01AM
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Kiteboy


FormulaNova
WA, 15106 posts
21 Dec 2012 7:12AM
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Sailhack said...
^^^ Although you know that Flysurfer makes a good point - Aus politics (and commentary) is pretty feckin boring...

...but don't let him distract you - please continue.



but that's the point. If you read a title, don't like it, don't post to it. That way it disappears from the active topics, and you don't need to worry.

I don't like some topics and don't post to them. Who cares?

FlySurfer
NSW, 4460 posts
21 Dec 2012 2:26PM
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adolf said...
FlySurfer said...
This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.


Ain't that the truth!

But hey, it's probably a good thing as I made 1K yesterday selling my BHP shares. About time I had a nice win and could go and have lunch in the good place.


Just count yourself lucky I didn't buy any... they would have half or called in the administrators just before your sell order.

Sailhack
VIC, 5000 posts
21 Dec 2012 2:41PM
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FormulaNova said...

but that's the point. If you read a title, don't like it, don't post to it. That way it disappears from the active topics, and you don't need to worry.

I don't like some topics and don't post to them. Who cares?


That's the way you roll & fair enough. Many see a title and think "this subject looks like it needs a transfusion of humour" and mix it up a bit. That's what makes most SB threads a great read for all.

pweedas
WA, 4642 posts
21 Dec 2012 12:19PM
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kiteboy dave said...
FlySurfer said...
This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.

<snip family photo #1>

Wait
<snip family photo #2>

Seriously now
<snip family photo #3>
One more

<Hey I hope you aren't married to that>



I could go into every single poley thread and post that. Every longboard thread. Every fishing thread. Can you see a pattern forming here Fly? Now look up, can you see that thing at the top Fly? It's a title. You read it before you click and you think about whether the thread might interest you. If if doesn't they you stay the f away. simple.




Yes but it was only flysurfers opinion and he's entitled to post it.
He could have contributed a rant on either side but instead he posted some pictures indicating his opinion in graphic form.
Considering that this is our last day on earth (21/12/12) who cares anyway?

I really liked the pictures so I think it was a great post.
Nice pics flysurfer.
(but hurry up and post something I can take the pith out of. )
{edit} oooohoooo it's just come over a bit cloudy. Is this the beginning of the end ??

AquaPlow
QLD, 1066 posts
21 Dec 2012 8:09PM
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WE'R MAKING OUR OWN HEADACHE - here is one for a DISPRIN or 6

When the lib's on the power broking jury get their act together and move the laybye priest and the Lone whine out of the driver's seat's we should have some one to vote for

Did U note how Lay bye did his No2 in as a chance Getting Julie B' to Stand up all week trying to provoke Gillard made her look really silly.

So if the Labor strategy ramps up too early then the laybye priest goes and Labor will not stand a chance against a new Liberal leader - it will be interesting to see when Labor starts trying to serve it up. They do not appear to have any really good attack dogs do they - A.Alben'easy' trying to ruffle a feather - nahhh .

As 4 the laybye priest sticking with his mates - his stated mentor in Cardinal Pell is likely to be out of favour in the not too distant future wonder how quickly that link will be severed.

The classic of 2012 foot in mouth 4 me ....
After a week of Labor mud slinging (i.e. plenty of time to learn some lines[}:)]) I still have that image of Lay-bye standing up & telling Gillard she had only just won the last leadership challenge from Dudd (by 2/3rds majority) and therefore did not have a legitimate claim to lead the labor party - well U can all guess what the reply was - Laybye only shoe'd himself in by a Slipper -

Has anyone tried the APP of Keating's favourite put down's?? If so how good is it??

Top of the NYear 2 U all

AP

FlySurfer
NSW, 4460 posts
21 Dec 2012 10:00PM
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OK, ok one more...

FormulaNova
WA, 15106 posts
21 Dec 2012 7:58PM
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pweedas said...
kiteboy dave said...
FlySurfer said...
This makes a 7 page 9/11 thread look super entertaining.

<snip family photo #1>

Wait
<snip family photo #2>

Seriously now
<snip family photo #3>
One more

<Hey I hope you aren't married to that>



I could go into every single poley thread and post that. Every longboard thread. Every fishing thread. Can you see a pattern forming here Fly? Now look up, can you see that thing at the top Fly? It's a title. You read it before you click and you think about whether the thread might interest you. If if doesn't they you stay the f away. simple.




Yes but it was only flysurfers opinion and he's entitled to post it.
He could have contributed a rant on either side but instead he posted some pictures indicating his opinion in graphic form.
Considering that this is our last day on earth (21/12/12) who cares anyway?

I really liked the pictures so I think it was a great post.
Nice pics flysurfer.
(but hurry up and post something I can take the pith out of. )
{edit} oooohoooo it's just come over a bit cloudy. Is this the beginning of the end ??


Yeah, sure he's entitled to post it. He can be a pain in the arse wherever he likes. He doesn't really seem to contribute anything interesting himself, other than his tales of woe about why people fire him/did wrong by him, so why not.

I used to read network news groups many years ago, which were mostly unmoderated. All it took was someone to post in every topic, garbage, and the whole thing went down hill. The groups became worthless as all the static from one or two individuals drowned out anything from anyone else.

I was sort of hoping for a grown up response where if you don't like something, you just ignore it, but hey, I guess that doesn't work for everyone. Mehh.



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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"I feel a political headache coming on...." started by FormulaNova