Just visited the BOM site re-climatic outlook for later in the year and it seems that all the temp measurements in the Pacific and models are pointing to a La Nina summer pattern.
I believe the summer before last was also a La Nina pattern and that provided epic WA wind conditions. Here's hoping!
Can any experts out there indicate what we can expect for the winter and spring?
So far this winter is as bad as I can remember with the total dominance of high pressure in WA. It seems that there is an endless pattern of high after high blocking out nearly all fronts and certainly any decent ones.
A couple of useful links:
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/?IDCODE=IDX0033&number=14
Enjoy
looks like neutral to la nina from noaa
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
La nina Kills off the SE trade winds up north.
Thanks Jayp an in depth analysis in that site.
"Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Ni?a conditions during June-August 2010."
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
I would have though La Nina would increase the strength of the trade winds?
Or does it simply shift them further south?
I'm seriously thinking of a trip somewhere north if the trades are going to be reliable this year.
yeah this pdf has the best summary of the lot.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
plenty of info in there with lots of stats going back so you can remember the best winter/spring you had and see what the el nino/la nina was doing then.
"kill off" the trades was a bit harsh - they will still be there just a few less 6m kite days - but the season will end early. oct nov probably. last year with the el nino the season kept going through to december then settled into a very weak wet season.
if you do look at the pdf it shows where in the pacific is experiencing higher than average winds... but they dont say what the average wind is could be....
