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Seasonal forecast - El Niño/La Niña or Neutral

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Created by Justhanging > 9 months ago, 24 Oct 2012
Justhanging
WA, 64 posts
24 Oct 2012 10:58AM
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Good winds forecast for the next few days in WA but what does this summer hold in terms of wind? Took an 8m out for a demo yesterday in anticipation of a windy summer but wondering now whether it is worth the investment.

Yesterdays ENSO update states that "The retreat from El Niño thresholds over the past several weeks is considered highly unusual, as September–October is typically the time when developing El Niño (or La Niña) events consolidate and mature. While some chance of El Niño remains, climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to be warmer than average, but stay within the neutral range for the rest of 2012 and early 2013. Full update here: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/"

bene313
WA, 1347 posts
24 Oct 2012 11:34AM
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Thanks for posting.

The initial forecast was for a slight to moderate El Nino effect. Perhaps we wont get it after all. At least the farmers will be happy!

NickT
WA, 1094 posts
24 Oct 2012 11:39AM
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I'm calling Elnino is dead, water is like a bath tub still like last year!

JBFletch
QLD, 1287 posts
24 Oct 2012 2:26PM
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i dunno how WA is but

NSW is pumping...

simonp
216 posts
24 Oct 2012 3:49PM
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I was reading an article the other day about how this year's El Ni?o is a bit weird:
Circumstantial evidence, though, suggests that something new is underway. A variation of El Ni?o has been detected in the central Pacific, well away from the ocean's eastern edge where it is normally born. This phenomenon, known as El Ni?o Modoki (Japanese for "looks like, but slightly different from"), causes unusual effects-including a lowering of tide heights, a strengthening of waves, and a tendency to make storms move south.
www.economist.com/babbage/2012/10/22/difference-engine-cloudy-with-a-chance-of



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"Seasonal forecast - El Niño/La Niña or Neutral" started by Justhanging