Hi guys,
I am beginner who started this sport last year in May. As you would normally expect, I got shortcuts all over my browsers with wind speed sites (many of them) and every single week, every day I am there praying frenetically for some wind.
Now, has anyone noticed how all the wind predictions, all the wind readings, all the forecasts are always wrong, but only on the plus side of things? Like, how come they are never predicting 12 knots and when you get to the beach you find a potent 19 knots????? How come they are always too optimistic and never too pessimistic???
I really don't get it.
Anyway! Poseidon, do your job, buddy!!!!!!! We are getting depressed down here :(((
I wouldn't call it optimistic so much as conservative - wind forecasts are usually given on the higher end of expected, with a caveat of gusts being 10 -20% higher than the forecasts.
Remember marine wind forecasts are used for shipping purposes and also sailing - these kinds of activities want to be properly warned.
Woooowwwww, really???? For us 19 knots is a great great day in Sydney - Northern Beaches. Celebration reason in fact!!!!!
In fact, if you want small second hands kites, buy them from Sydney, they are never used here. That's why my next purchase will be a massive 17 meters kite with 50 meters lines, otherwise.....kiting once a month!
Mikedobee,
It's a conspiracy!
The forecasters at the BOM are all mad keen fishermen and don't want to share the water with other fishermen. So, every weekend they forecast that it will blow 20-25knots and then they head out fishing, safe in the knowledge that even though it is only 0-10knots the other fishermen are staying home cos they don't want to be caught out at sea when the wind picks up.
Simple really.... 
Arrgggghhhh... I am soooo hanging out for the trade winds to kick in!!!!!!!!!!! 
I thought about conspiracy as well, different theory though. Wouldn't be a good idea to expose it here.
Meanwhile, let's fire Poseidon and bring someone else more keen to do his job! :)))
maybe when they forecast 12 knots you don't bother going down to check it out. if its wrong on the low side you could've had a great session with no-one else on it... but then you wouldn't know what you've missed!
seriously but for some sites (and some locations within sites) the forecast just works - and others it doesn't. trick is working out which ones are reliable and which aren't, in which conditions. you've got to work that out yourself for your area.
also some live readings are better than others.... they only record the wind at the weather station, not where your kite happens to be at the time.
Heard of the butterfly effect? Meteorology is a complex field of physics and prediction is not easy, nor particularly conclusive. The models are only as good as the data and mathematics available currently. But it's a whole lot better than some places in the world. Just be happy we at least have some grip on prediction. Once you have kited for a while you know how to read into the predictions and accommodate accordingly.
But even then, like this Tuesday, they do get it all wrong.
