El Nino is supposed to be really strong this year. Ocean temperatures in some parts of the world are already at record highs.
What will El Nino do to the wind in different parts of the world?
Will there be anywhere in the world that might have better wind conditions than normal because of El Nino, or is El Nino typically bad for windsurfing wind everywhere?
Seems to kill the local seabreeze here. The ocean gets hot so the differential is less to the land.
i have been lying awake every night worrying about this 😂
So for tassie (and maybe southern parts of Vic, SA, WA) my understanding is that the influence of the roaring 40's weakens. The band of westerlies gets pushed further south.
This may mean fewer of the westerly patterns which bring high rainfall to the west coast of tas and create prolonged periods (up to 10 days) of strong NW to SW wind
But what i dont understand is how far south the westerlies will go, maybe tassie will still be in the midst of them? Or maybe we'll just see fewer frontal systems?
Then the other thing is el nino means warmer sea temps off our east coast which can intensify storms. So perhaps we'll see short sharp windy periods? Which is kind of what is happening here at the moment, light N and NE winds for a few days followed by strong SW change.
Also the BOM say that the strength of el nino doesnt necessarily manifest in dryer conditions. ie. a weak el nino can bring drought, a strong el nino might not, there is not a good correlation. Anyway we'll find out in a few months
IT hasn't stopped blowing from the east and SE here in the South Pacific for the past 6 weeks 20-30 knots most days ,not a good direction for sailing for us ,not good for the fishing boats ,we are eating steak now 😀
bring on the S W wind please .it certainly is not dry .we had nothing (sw wind ) last year , lets hope it is different this year .sea water temperatures are up for this time of year . 22 c but early days .
Lets hope for a windy winter guys .
Select to expand quotephiln said..
El Nino is supposed to be really strong this year. Ocean temperatures in some parts of the world are already at record highs.
What will El Nino do to the wind in different parts of the world?
Will there be anywhere in the world that might have better wind conditions than normal because of El Nino, or is El Nino typically bad for windsurfing wind everywhere?
Better around our area..more seabreezes . Newcastle / Central coast NSW.😀
Worse bushfires and heat though..😒
Invercargill at the bottom of the south Island of NZ is the best place to be in a el nino year, gets hammered.
Its too far south to be affected if the westerly flow drops a bit south.
Western vic does well in a el nino year typically, with westerly patterns ( cross shore), like in 19/20 and 06/07. However at 38 degrees south SAM (southern angular mode) can affect them, making them drift abit to south and we miss it (NW tassie firing)
It would be interesting to hear the perspective from the tassie sailers
KJ see above for my 10 cents worth on tas. quick answer, unsure
Traditionally Tassie gets consistent westerlies, most of our usual wave spots work in SW or W wind. What we have seen over the last couple of years is a shift in weather patterns - still plenty of wind but from different directions.
Last year it was the polar vortex, from Aug to Dec we got smashed with constant W and NW systems. For 2 months, BOM were issuing severe weather warnings on average every second day and we were regularly seeing speeds exceeding 50kts
Then this year la nina has brought consistent NE winds and east coast swell. Moderate but steady.
Upshot of all this is that our goto wave locations have gone off the boil. Normally places like Low Head and Marrawah can be sailed several times a month, for the last year I've only had a handful of sessions there.
But on the flip side new locations along the north and east coasts which are rarely sailed have taken over. Probably sailing DTL conditions more than ever, and its been awesome scoring sessions in parts of the state that we never used to bother about
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Location: Top of the South Island, NZ. I'm optimistic the wind will be stronger and more frequent during El Nino.
During the last El nino in 2019, My speed PBs increased by 4knots between September and December 2019 and have not increased since 🤔. During that time we had fronts arriving every 5-7 days, with strong NW followed by strong SW. These occurred, though less frequently, right through to the end of summer 2019-2020. Sea temperature was cooler and sea breezes were stronger so in my rose-tinted memory, there was always wind 😎.
My 5.4m slalom sail got a hammering and was too large for me at times. I bought a 5.2 in 2020 (just before Covid went nuts), and I have only used that sail twice since! La Niña, with its more easterly flow + warm water is truly crap here so I'm excited for El Nino!!
Select to expand quotesrtgumbee said..
Location: Top of the South Island, NZ. I'm optimistic the wind will be stronger and more frequent during El Nino.
During the last El nino in 2019, My speed PBs increased by 4knots between September and December 2019 and have not increased since 🤔. During that time we had fronts arriving every 5-7 days, with strong NW followed by strong SW. These occurred, though less frequently, right through to the end of summer 2019-2020. Sea temperature was cooler and sea breezes were stronger so in my rose-tinted memory, there was always wind 😎.
My 5.4m slalom sail got a hammering and was too large for me at times. I bought a 5.2 in 2020 (just before Covid went nuts), and I have only used that sail twice since! La Niña, with its more easterly flow + warm water is truly crap here so I'm excited for El Nino!!
Nz is supposed to get stronger westerlies according the weather experts so things are looking good for you…
Select to expand quoteTardy said..
IT hasn't stopped blowing from the east and SE here in the South Pacific for the past 6 weeks 20-30 knots most days ,not a good direction for sailing for us ,not good for the fishing boats ,we are eating steak now 😀
bring on the S W wind please .it certainly is not dry .we had nothing (sw wind ) last year , lets hope it is different this year .sea water temperatures are up for this time of year . 22 c but early days .
Lets hope for a windy winter guys .
😂Tardy .... tuna steak and crayfish one day eye fillet the next ...you hang in their buddy💪 ...we've got your back 😂
On a more depressing note ..... i have enough data to put anyone to sleep that shows SEQ particularly the Rainshine Coast is getting wetter and wetter every year since 1995...and its not a small amount ...its sizeable and the trend is continuing wet , which is crap for wind, (and kids Soccer!) be it NE seabreezes where we need dry land , cool ocean temps , or decent SE winds without getting ruined by buckets of rain, the consistent pattern equals less possible sailing days/time each year thats a certainty.
Solution? Spend more time in WA, its that simple:) ..... and yes the WA crew will claim that its their worst season ever , and its getting worse every year ...and that may be true...but the worst WA season is still more wind and sunshine than 10 SE QLD seasons combined. #allwindsurfingroadsleadwest
Select to expand quoteJonesySail said..Tardy said..
IT hasn't stopped blowing from the east and SE here in the South Pacific for the past 6 weeks 20-30 knots most days ,not a good direction for sailing for us ,not good for the fishing boats ,we are eating steak now 😀
bring on the S W wind please .it certainly is not dry .we had nothing (sw wind ) last year , lets hope it is different this year .sea water temperatures are up for this time of year . 22 c but early days .
Lets hope for a windy winter guys .
😂Tardy .... tuna steak and crayfish one day eye fillet the next ...you hang in their buddy💪 ...we've got your back 😂
I'm on chicken now 😂
WA here I come ,👍
Select to expand quoteAI.Dave said..
KJ see above for my 10 cents worth on tas. quick answer, unsure
Traditionally Tassie gets consistent westerlies, most of our usual wave spots work in SW or W wind. What we have seen over the last couple of years is a shift in weather patterns - still plenty of wind but from different directions.
Last year it was the polar vortex, from Aug to Dec we got smashed with constant W and NW systems. For 2 months, BOM were issuing severe weather warnings on average every second day and we were regularly seeing speeds exceeding 50kts
Then this year la nina has brought consistent NE winds and east coast swell. Moderate but steady.
Upshot of all this is that our goto wave locations have gone off the boil. Normally places like Low Head and Marrawah can be sailed several times a month, for the last year I've only had a handful of sessions there.
But on the flip side new locations along the north and east coasts which are rarely sailed have taken over. Probably sailing DTL conditions more than ever, and its been awesome scoring sessions in parts of the state that we never used to bother about
Thanks for expanding on that Dave. Last year was a bit strange here in Western Vic, we got those NW and W too, however it didn't swing that much to the W to SW, which is what we need, as there is no real place to sail on a NW direction (to off shore).
What's it like in South Tassie? around Hobart. I have no idea about sailing in that part of the world
yeh if only we could have another polar vortex thing but a bit further south 😎 would love to check out vic and sa one day
Around the hobart/south arm area theres several beach breaks for wave sailing which are usually pretty bumpy and unreliable but occasionally can be gold. These are all about 30-40mins from the city
The good south coast stuff happens a short drive away. These are within 40 to 90mins of the city and go off in big SW or NW systems. They are best in side off and get super gusty, very challenging to sail and some days you get flogged. But usually score some pretty special rides
New Zealand is the place to be during El Niño. I didn’t realise that most places in the world will be worse off for wind than normal. During an El Niño year New Zealand expects to get a constant stream of low pressure systems from the west, each of them bringing wind. Dream season ahead for wave sailing in Taranaki and all the other areas that work in westerly winds (South Coast of the South Island, Wellington, inland lakes on both islands, Auckland area).
And New Zealand is only a short flight from Australias East Coast! Possibly cheaper and quicker than getting to WA…
Any questions, just ask, we’re happy to help with info, windsurf and wingfoil rental and local support!
Nice, you guys are in for a good season! And it could be good news for tassie since we are similiar latitude to south island
According to chatgpt annual average wind speeds are higher at Low Head (one of the windiest north coast sites) during el nino years.. hopefully time to break out the small gear 🎉
Nice, you guys are in for a good season! And maybe tassie since we are similiar latitude to south island
According to chatgpt annual average wind speeds are higher at Low Head (one of the windiest north coast sites) during el nino years.. hopefully time to break out the small gear 🎉
Select to expand quoteWaterNomads said..
New Zealand is the place to be during El Niño. I didn’t realise that most places in the world will be worse off for wind than normal. During an El Niño year New Zealand expects to get a constant stream of low pressure systems from the west, each of them bringing wind. Dream season ahead for wave sailing in Taranaki and all the other areas that work in westerly winds (South Coast of the South Island, Wellington, inland lakes on both islands, Auckland area).
And New Zealand is only a short flight from Australias East Coast! Possibly cheaper and quicker than getting to WA…
Any questions, just ask, we’re happy to help with info, windsurf and wingfoil rental and local support!
Agree and El Nino is also great for snow in NZ. Hopefully Mount Ruapehu gets a base to cover all the rocks.
Mount Taranaki has a club field and when it's on its AWESOME with steep natural half pipe.
Saying that it's not for the average rider with no grommers, long walk in, nut crackers, steep!!!
Especially Labour weekend in October I've done powder snow, wave sailing 2 days, surfing and spring slush snowboarding.
It's why Taranaki is also known as 'Taradise' 😎
Yeah, southern naki. I had the best sail in in my life there in 87/88, strong El Nino year 27 days in a row. Was working at Waitotara, sailed Waiinu beach and the point. Started to get bored when there was no swell. I would last 5 days now
