And, while I am educating myself using my so painfully slow internet, this just came in by carrier pidgeon:
'Access Economics has predicted high speed broadband itself to increase the net present value of GDP by $8 - $23 billion over ten years'
So - spend $43 billion and improve GDP by $23 billion at best ($8 billion at worst).
Sound like good value to me.
My internet seems plenty fast enough at the moment and I’m with Mark, Carantoc etc. in terms of how important it is to me to have it faster. But, assuming we do need faster internet I just find it really hard to accept that having a physical connection between virtually every house in Australia is the best way to go about it. Chances are it’s because I don't understand the issue fully so please educate me. My very non-technical understanding of it goes like this...
NBN will give me say 1GB/s. Telstra reckon they can give me 20MB/s via Next G (i.e. wireless). So comparing the as-yet-unavailable NBN to wireless I’m 50 times better off (ignoring latency issues) with fibre.
But, wireless takes nothing more than a little plastic modem that I plug into my PC. Fibre requires people to go around physically laying a cable that joins every house across one of the least densely populated countries in the world. So, if I can get 50MB/s from 1 modem, can’t I get fibre speeds by plugging 50 wireless internet thingos into my PC and running them simultaneously (okay – I realise that wouldn’t actually work as the technology stands, not least of which being the fact that I don’t have 50 USB sockets on my pc, but the point remains valid doesn’t it)?
So, 50 x Next-G modems at today’s money – maybe $5000 if I bought them from my local shop. However if I was the Australian government buying 50 for every person I reckon I could arrange a bulk discount. Even without a bulk-buy discount, the cost of these things is only going to get cheaper (my first 128kb USB memory stick was about $100, I’d struggle to find such a small one these days but assume it would be about $5 if I could). And the technology only ever gets better (so by the time NBN is built won’t wireless be significantly faster than the current 20MB/s). But isn’t the cost of getting fibre installed only going to get more expensive? And for a technology that can’t evolve (or at least not with the certainty that wireless technologies will)?
Even if my theory of using more wireless modems to get more speed is stupid (although I’m standing by it at this stage!!), wouldn’t we be better of investing a 10th of the NBN cost to develop faster wireless with reduced latency that would then be infinitely scaleable and would be IP Australia could sell elsewhere? Then, those that need the extra speed would have access to it at an additional but reasonable cost, while the 95% (I made that stat up) of us that have speeds that are already more than fast enough can continue as we are.
I’m happy to accept that there are probably fundamental flaws in my logic – please educate me.
And doesn't mobility seem to be one great trend of advancement ?
What would you rather have :
The clearest, most perfect instant HD teleconferencing on a 54" plasma (with simultaneous data transmission) from your fixed home phone to any other fixed phone in Australia
or
your current mobile iphone / blackberry / plain old voice only mobile
($43 billion)
I'm by no means an expert on this but I have a very basic understanding and I'll attempt to impart what I have learnt in layman terms.
I'm not sure if you guys have ever been to a big rock concert, event or out on New Years Eve, or tried making a call on your mobile during some sort of localised emergency, but if you have, you would know that wireless systems have limited capacity. When the system reaches it's limited capacity the signal dies. Because of this physical limitation, I don't believe wireless could ever become a serious alternative to hard wiring.
The copper system we have now was designed for voice and it does a good job of that, however, it too has bandwidth limitations. Fibre optics has 1000x the capacity of copper at far greater distances. I think that's why Tony Windsor came to his conclusion "you do it once, you do it right and you do it with fibre".
Yesterday the free to air CB radio had 40 channels
You could have 40 people talking at anyone time
Technology has advanced since CB two way radio was licensed as free to air, and I read just yesterday it is now proposed to half the distance between each band.
Hence tomorrow (or sometime soon) there will be 80 channels so 80 people have the ability to talk at once.
Logic says all wireless data transmission will go the same way.
Fibre optic cable has a finite number of strands. Imagine old telegraph had one strand of copper wire, and one signal (voltage or ground) and a person listening to tone of that voltage each second. With one copper strand you could then transmit more than one beep per second, using first a faster operator and then an electronic operator who works really quick.
Optic has a number of strands. Don't know how many NBN will have but it will sound alot (maybe 100 strands). Like telegraph data transmission down fibre has advanced rapidly from the on / off light beam to being able to send multi messages simultaneously down one fibre. Hence fibre has very large capacity, and capacity down it can grow even without adding new strands.
Both wireless and fibre will be able to stream more data in the future. Both have a finite capacity (both now and theoretically).
Which will be best tomorrow - who knows, cable salesmen will tell you one thing, ariel fabricators will tell you another.
One costs the tax payer $43 billion today, one costs the tax payer nothing.
Maybe one will earn the tax payer of tomorrow $44 billion and one will earn nothing.
But it appears these things are not required to be assessed in order to make the decision. The decision comes before the analysis.
Building the network now will probably cost more than building a comparable network in the future. However building the network in the future will mean we miss out on the benefits such a network could bring till its built.
I don't think we are disussing a zero sum gain argument here, where spending money on something means there is no money to spend on something else.
The money that would be allocated to build the NBN would not necessarily be spent on roads or hospitals or whatever. Money will be spent on these areas of probably around the same amount if the NBN was to be built or not.
On the other hand if the NBN is not built then its arguable that more money will have to be spent on other government services. If telecommuting is unworkable then more people have to drive to work, thereby requiring more money to be spent on roads and probably more money spent dealing with car accidents.
A similar argument could be put towards health and education. Where the money spent of a fast network will reduce costs for industries using the network.
Its true that a lot of money is proposed to be spent on this network. However the federal government spends a lot of money on other things too, some of which really have little benefit to the community.
A pretty strong argument could be mounted against the need of having our defence forces set up the way they are now, and thereby save billions upon billions of dollars.
A lot of people have mentioned telecommuting. But the reality is that the applications that a faster internet speeds would be put to probably haven't even been thought up yet.
I mentioned VOIP earlier. Just 10 years ago the idea probably didn't even exist. Maybe 5 years ago it was feasible but difficult to do. Now there are companies that exist just to provide that technology. They employ people, pay taxes and so on.
The bottom line is that if we're not in the game then we'll be left behind. Yet again we'll be importing those new technologies, not exporting them.