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4:45am and it's daylight

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Created by WA Surf > 9 months ago, 14 Dec 2009
lostinlondon
VIC, 1159 posts
17 Dec 2009 9:37AM
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Yeah, its just plain common sense to have DLS, but people from Vic are having delusions if they think the wind here is any good at the moment. Its been a heartbreaker so far this season! Not only does the BOM seem to get the forecast repeatedly wrong, the seabreeze just hasn't been building like it normally does!

Last summer we were getting 4-5 days a week, this summer it gets windy for an hour then drops out, which is long enough to get down to the beach and set your gear up just in time to watch it glass off!

This is the forecast for today:

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds: Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25
knots during the morning, then increasing to 20 to 30 knots later in the
evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres. The chance of thunderstorms from midday.

Yet, the wind gauge at St Kilda is only showing 2 knots at the moment WTF.

harry potter
VIC, 2777 posts
17 Dec 2009 12:31PM
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yep its the BOM's crap new forecasting model,,,,,,, changed about 18months ago I think.

about two years ago they were pretty much close to right most of the time....... now it is hopeless.

When they forecast 20 -30 it is often 5knots

When they forcast 5-10 it is often 20knots

Completely useless

lostinlondon
VIC, 1159 posts
17 Dec 2009 12:43PM
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Well, if its any consolation it looks like the wind has settled in for the day and is going to build some. 17 knots SSW at the beacon and St Kilda. 21 knots down at the South Channel.

That means it will probably glass off at about 545pm

Beersy
TAS, 753 posts
17 Dec 2009 2:17PM
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Nope, it's glassy already

the gaz
WA, 173 posts
17 Dec 2009 2:25PM
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We might not have DLS but at least we have wind. Another tough week.

graceful
WA, 773 posts
17 Dec 2009 2:43PM
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the gaz said...



We might not have DLS but at least we have wind. Another tough week.



Ooo yeah...
My bodys still stuffed from last week... I love Perth :)))

Carboneutral
WA, 59 posts
17 Dec 2009 3:17PM
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Oh well here goes, if you love DLS, Melbourne, Sydney, and all the other fantastic cities in the world that have it, why don't you leave and go and live there, that way us poor simple backwards people in Perth will have less winging kiters and more room to go kiting ourselves.

Love kiting and seabreezes, hate wingers

djdojo
VIC, 1616 posts
17 Dec 2009 6:43PM
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The English language is difficult, isn't it.

Why are the first parts of whinge and wind pronounced identically yet spelled differently?

Why do so few people appreciate that there is not only a vast difference in meaning but also a small difference in pronunciation between bridal and bridle?

Why is the bom (and seabreeze) so much better at predicting Melbourne's temperatures than its wind speed and direction? (Perhaps this is not a linguistic issue.)

Love kiting and seabreezes (and semicolons); respond disparagingly towards poor spelling, especially when the forecast wind fails to materialise.

If the 9-5 treadmill keeps you from the things you love, change it.

"Is there anyone here who doesn't want to go to work tomorrow?" (Crowd goes wild) "So don't go!" (Jello Biafra, with apologies if it ain't precisely verbatim)

marco
WA, 332 posts
17 Dec 2009 5:44PM
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Since we dont have DLS anymore, I just can go kiting during week once. cant rock of 3pm every day .


it daylight 4.45 and then you get up ..... then you have to wait until the shops are open. so annoying

lotofwind
NSW, 6451 posts
17 Dec 2009 8:45PM
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Carboneutral said...

Oh well here goes, if you love DLS, Melbourne, Sydney, and all the other fantastic cities in the world that have it, why don't you leave and go and live there, that way us poor simple backwards people in Perth will have less winging kiters and more room to go kiting ourselves.

Love kiting and seabreezes, hate wingers




I hate wingers that winge about wingers........ya winger

Carboneutral
WA, 59 posts
17 Dec 2009 8:35PM
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Whatever

Foot
NSW, 57 posts
17 Dec 2009 11:52PM
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BOM- Bureau of Mayberology!

Alfred007
VIC, 37 posts
18 Dec 2009 12:21AM
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I would not bash the BOM forecast.. if there is a forecast that is totally useless crap, then it is certainly the one on this website!
For Melbourne, I always check BOM, Seabreeze and Windfinder.
Result:

BOM is imo the best overall. Since they give squall warnings etc., it is a must to check anyway. Yeah especially last week the wind was different in Altona than predicted, but wind strenghts were varying widely in the bay.

Windfinder has a strange scale.. 15knts mean 25 in reality, 20knts 35. But if you know that, the forecast is not too bad. For Rosebud, I often found the windfinder forecast for South Channel Island better.

And then there is Seabreeze.. Not rarely do they predict the entire opposite than what is happening, e.g. "dropping from 20knts to 5 during the afternoon". The last few weeks I had that experience a couple of times when the wind was actually building to 20knts through the afternoon and holding, like the other forecasts said.
There does not seem to be an error pattern in the Seabreeze forecasts, sometimes they predict way too much, then way too little, get the tendency wrong etc - from my experience, it is just plain useless.
Just wondering about the reason, do they use less data, a different/new model, and are the Seabreeze forecasts better elsewhere?
If a newbie comes to Melbourne and relies just on Seabreeze, he would be srewed.

gruezi
WA, 3464 posts
18 Dec 2009 5:50AM
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Some wind even at this time today...........going to play golf instead

tgladman
WA, 500 posts
19 Dec 2009 1:03PM
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even tho i voted 4 dls, i'm happy it didn't get in. when i'm driving to work at 5am i see about 2 or 3 dickheads on the road. if dls got in i'd have to put up with about 2 or 3 hundred of them. i gues i'mm just lucky enough to work by my own watch, but i do sympathise with u guys stuck at work while i'm at the beach settin up. hopefully our beautiful state of wa will get with the times..........eventually.

graceful
WA, 773 posts
19 Dec 2009 1:28PM
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Seabreeze's predictions for Perth seem to be spot on...

hilly
WA, 8140 posts
19 Dec 2009 4:32PM
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tgladman said...

even tho i voted 4 dls, i'm happy it didn't get in. when i'm driving to work at 5am i see about 2 or 3 dickheads on the road. if dls got in i'd have to put up with about 2 or 3 hundred of them. i gues i'mm just lucky enough to work by my own watch, but i do sympathise with u guys stuck at work while i'm at the beach settin up. hopefully our beautiful state of wa will get with the times..........eventually.


Think that may be the other way round dark at 5am with DLS so less traffic.

muirs
SA, 165 posts
21 Dec 2009 10:49AM
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Hey Alfred,
Not sure if its different in Perth, but the adelaide forecast is certainly just a gradient one. It calculates wind forecasts from computer models. There's no manual input from forecasters and hence no consideration of local conditions, like seabreezes, gully winds, etc.
For example, seabreeze often forecasts a SE breeze here in Adelaide (offshore) in the afternoon, even on a clear 25-35deg day in the middle of summer. Clearly this is wrong, and clearly there will be seabreeze, which is SW here.
Also, if Seabreeze forecasts a strong northerly airstream on a real fkn hot day, it will often be glass at the beach in the afternoon because the seabreeze and the northerly nullify each other. However the forecast is right inland, where there will be a strong northerly as predicted.
My point- seabreeze is useful if you use it to forecast the gradient. Then use bom or local knowledge/intuition to work out the rest.



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"4:45am and it's daylight" started by WA Surf